Last Sunday, I’m round at my parents’ house for roast dinner and suddenly my dad starts waving his phone around like he just won the lottery! “Look at this,” he says, grinning from ear to ear like the cat that got the cream. “This year, my Tesco shares have gone up by 43%.
Now, my old man’s been buying Tesco share price dips for about fifteen years. He began when everyone was slamming the supermarkets during the financial crisis. “People always need groceries,” he would say. It turns out he may have been onto something.
The Numbers That’ll Make You Choke on Your Cuppa
As it stands in September 2025, Tesco shares have risen and are doing nicely at approximately 438p – reaching a high of 445p on the 8th September. That’s mental when you think about it. The stock is up nearly 19% in the last year, while most people’s savings accounts are earning about as much as a chocolate teapot.
But here’s the kicker. The shares have slipped back a bit of late, from that 445p peak to around 433p; indeed, some analysts are getting antsy, muttering about bearish divergences and all that technical stuff. Makes you wonder if it’s the end of the party or just a breather.
My mate Colin, who works in the City, reckons these pullbacks are normal. “Share prices don’t go up and up forever,” he said over a pint last Friday. “Even good companies have wobbles.”
What’s Actually Driving This Madness?
Tesco’s share of the UK grocery market has reached 28.5% in 2025. That’s massive. Almost three in every 10 pounds spent on groceries passes through Tesco tills. They’ve had 24 straight four-week periods of market share gains, and UK market share is at 28.3%, its highest since 2016.
Consider that for a moment. And as all of us are moaning about the cost of living, Tesco is growing. There was a 5.9% increase in food sales; non-food sales (excluding toys) were up 6.2%. ”People aren’t just shopping there more; they’re buying more stuff too.
My sister is working at Tesco Extra near Birmingham and she says it’s been mental busy since 2024. “Queue for the car park most weekends,” she says to me. “Never seen anything like it.”
The Competition’s Getting Proper Worried
Tesco’s been steaming ahead, and their competitors are scratching their heads, wondering what’s gone wrong. Sainsbury’s, Asda, and Morrisons are all wrestling for the bits and pieces while Tesco hoovers up customers like a Dyson.
During 2025 Tesco launched more than 1,000 new products and enhanced over 600 existing ones, while annual sales of their premium Finest range hit £2.5 billion, up 15% year-on-year. That’s not just good business; that’s proper domination.
My neighbour Janet moved from Sainsbury’s to Tesco around six months ago. “Better prices, better selection,” she says. “Don’t know why I procrastinated so long.” Stories like that are happening up and down the country.
Where the Smart Money’s Looking
Some analysts have suggested that Tesco’s share price could reach between 463p and 545p by the end of 2025. This represents a potential upside of 5–24% from current levels. These projections are speculative and based on market trends and company performance. They do not guarantee future returns.
The company now has a market capitalisation of more than £28.4 billion. That’s bigger than many FTSE 100 companies who receive far more column inches. Tesco’s established itself as a proper heavyweight in the stock market, not just on the high street.
Though here’s what bothers me a bit. When everyone is raving about a stock, things typically begin to go awry. My dad learned that one the hard way with tech stocks back in 2000.
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The Reality Check Nobody Wants to Hear
Recent technical analysis indicates that the stock might be due for a short-term pullback. No asset goes straight up forever. Even the smartest companies, such as Tesco, hit bumps in the road.
Then there is that entire economic backdrop to consider. Interest rates, inflation, and consumer spending are all that macro stuff that can blow even the best shares sideways. My dad’s seen it happen before.
“Made good money on Tesco over the years,” he said when I spoke with him yesterday. “But I’m not getting ahead of myself. Markets can change more swiftly than the weather.”
What This Means for Normal People
If you’re thinking about the Tesco share price as an investment, here’s my take. The fundamentals look solid. Growing market share, strong sales, decent dividends. But the shares aren’t exactly cheap anymore after this year’s run-up.
My dad’s approach has always been to buy when everyone else is selling and hold for the long term. “Patience pays in the stock market,” he says. Easy for him to say now his shares are flying.
Recent positive news saw shares tick up 2.3% to 394p, though that’s still below the current higher levels. Shows how volatile things can be day to day.
The Dividend Angle
One thing that attracts people to Tesco shares is the dividend. It’s not spectacular, but it’s steady. My dad gets his quarterly payments and reinvests them, buying more shares. Compound growth, he calls it.
“Better than leaving money in the bank earning nothing,” he says. It’s hard to argue with that logic when savings rates are pants and inflation’s eating away at your purchasing power.
Looking Ahead
Will Tesco shares keep rising? Nobody knows for certain. What I can say is the company looks in good shape. Dominant market position, loyal customers, decent management. That doesn’t guarantee share price gains, but it’s a good foundation.
My dad’s not selling anytime soon. “Still think people will always need groceries,” he says. The same logic that got him buying shares fifteen years ago. Sometimes the simple approach works best.
Final Thoughts
Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just curious about what all the fuss is about, Tesco’s share price performance this year has been impressive. The company’s grabbed market share while competitors struggled, and investors have been rewarded.
But remember, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Share prices can go down as well as up, as they say in the small print. Do your own research, don’t invest more than you can afford to lose, and all that sensible stuff.
My dad’s done well with his Tesco shares, no doubt about it. Whether that continues is anyone’s guess. But one thing’s for sure, he’ll keep shopping there regardless. “Know a good thing when I see it,” he says.
Fair play to him, really.
DISCLAIMER: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The views expressed are personal and anecdotal. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author does not hold shares in Tesco and has no financial interest in the company.
